Wednesday, December 27, 2006

You can't walk to the promised land these days.

The Dallas Cowboys will not make it to the SuperBowl this season. Write it down, carve it in stone, cast it in bronze, whatever. But understand it, let it sink in, and get ready for next season. They won't make it to the SuperBowl because they do not have a running back that can consistently make a difference in ball games.

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Oh yeah, they get some production out of this running back by committee thing they've had going for several years, but let's look at history. I'll put a few names out on the table to look at:

Emmitt Smith
Barry Sanders
Walter Peyton
Thurman Thomas
Franco Harris
Tony Dorsett
Marcus Allen
Earl Campbell
Ricky Watters
Larry Czonka
Corey Dillon

First of all, most of those running backs have a SuperBowl ring. Some have three. All of them played for playoff contenders. A couple of them, Sanders and Peyton, played for really lousy teams and still became great running backs. And who can say how much more lousy those teams would have been without that great running back. Earl Campbell immediately elevated the play of the Houston Oilers by just showing up.'

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You can go look at the stats of all the SuperBowl winners throughout history and find that almost certainly, there was a top grade running back lined up for that team. Not some guy that might get you the yards you need, but a guy that the other team had to change their defense because he was in the game. I don't care how bad the Detroit Lions were, teams had to account for Barry Sanders. Or he'd burn them. Same for Emmitt Smith. And Franco Harris.

I contend that to get to the big game, a team must have a top 3 running back. Not a top 3 committee. There has to be one guy that the opposing team simply fears. Yes, there has to be a decent offensive line in front of him and all the other supporting cast, but bad running backs don't always do well even if they have all that. Good running backs, really good running backs, make a difference in almost every game they play. Even if it's just a matter of making the defense account for him on every play.

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Emmitt Smith has 3 SuperBowl rings, the NFL record for yards gained and God knows how many other records. Barry Sanders allowed the Lions, who weren't good at all without him, compete. Walter Peyton was just Walter Peyton. Sweetness. For his team. Danger to opposing teams. The Chicago Bears would have been looking up to see the basement without Walter. Thurman Thomas only took his team to 4 SuperBowls. They lost them, but he got them there, which is more than all but one other running back could say each year. Franco Harris has the SuperBowl rings to prove he did his job. So do Tony Dorsett and Marcus Allen. Earl Campbell never made it to the SuperBowl, but he was a huge part of the Houston Oiler offense and got them into the playoffs when they would have never made it without him. The Forty Niners of the early 90's wouldn't have been what they were without Ricky Watters. No one played them without having to account for Ricky. Larry Czonka is the only one of those listed above that can claim a perfect regular season. 14-0, and a SuperBowl ring after winning out in the playoffs. Corey Dillon is the current guy that's making his mark in history with the Patriots. Tomlinson looks to be the real thing out in San Diego.

To get to the Promised Land, you have to run. Walking won't get you there. What these guys brought to games was heart. These guys came in, did their jobs and made differences in ball games. Consistently.

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That's the difference in what the Dallas Cowboys have had for several years now. Consistency. Julius Jones has proven to be average, at best. Barber has scored touchdowns all season, but nothing shows he's capable of being an every down back.

There are several problems with the Cowboys team right now. Defense, of course, particularly safeties and pass rushers. The offensive line is a problem that has not been properly addressed. But Jerry Jones knows what it took last time to get the Cowboys to the big game. A good quarterback. Tony Romo has the potential of being that. No doubt he needs some more experience. Good wide receivers, with one being a game changer. Dallas isn't in too bad of a shape at wide receiver right now. And a top grade running back. Dallas does not have that currently.

Add to that a defense that can just shut down the other team, regardless of whether it's passing or running and the Cowboys can add to their trophy case. Fiddle farting around with these half-assed running backs and trying to fix a position for one year by bringing in someone like TO hasn't worked. This running back by committee thing might get things done early in the season, but it hasn't worked late in the season and I don't see it working well in the postseason with current personnel.

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If you'll spend $5 million on a kicker, Mr. Jones, surely you will consider spending some real money on a running back. Especially since you have the privilege of being able to look at the results of spending good money on one in the past by just glancing up at your trophy case.

You can't walk to the promised land these days. You have to run.

Of course, this will be read by fans, not by anyone on the team. So It won't make one iota of a difference. But damned if I don't feel better after writing it.

I am just livid with myself. . . .

I know better than this. I held out longer than almost all of you. Amidst claims of going to the promise land, the SuperBowl, all that, I maintained a wait and see attitude.

But last week, I bit the cheese. Romo had done well, played consistently and I just felt like it was all coming together. The Cowboys had it going their way. NFC East title was within reach. The #2 spot in the playoffs was within reach, albeit with some outside help. Someone had to beat the Saints. The Cowboys had cinched the playoffs, now it was just a matter of jockeying for position.

But there was a minor problem. The Philadelphia Eagles. Not only that, it was the Philadelphia Eagles coming to Texas Stadium. Here at the end of the season, when the Cowboys should be building momentum to go into the playoffs, they started losing home games. And not just any home game. No, they lost home games that were critical to playoff posturing. New Orleans came to Texas Stadium and just had their way with the Cowboys. The Philadelphia Eagles did the same thing yesterday.

The odds are that Dallas will finish the season 10-6. The should beat the Detroit Lions. But don't put your money on it. This is the inconsistent Cowboys. Change the score on two games and the Cowboys basically win every other game. They had a 4 game streak after Romo first became the starter, but since then, it's been win one, then lose one, repeat.

I posted an article back on Nov. 6th and said:

"Seeing half a season go by with the pattern of up one week, down the next, and seeing our record at this point being exactly where it should be based on performance, 4-4, one can only come to the conclusion that the Cowboys are mediocre, average. . . .bordering on bad. Yes they can improve. Yes, they can get worse, too. It's a wash."

I guess I left off the fact that they could just stay like they were, middle of the pack. Oh sure, they had the 4 game winning streak, which improved them from a 50% team after game #8 to a 60% team where they are now.

60% . . . Let that one soak in.

I don't know about you, but where I went to school, anything less than 70% was failure. And before anyone comes up with the argument that if it hadn't been for that freak play at the end of that Washington game, the numbers wouldn't be the same. The bottom line is it wasn't different at the end of that Washington game and the numbers are the same. There certainly was no freak play in the New Orleans game. Or in the Philly game yesterday. The Philadelphia Eagles kicked asses and took names. When someone asks the Cowboys "who's your daddy", they can collectively say "The Eagles are my daddy!" It sucks, but it's reality.

Also reality is the inconsistency. In training camp and preseason, the expectation was that Dallas would have a great defense this season. At no point in this season could you have claimed the Cowboys had a great defense. The best game they played, in my opinion, was against the Colts. One game does not a great season make. They won't be a great defense this season. The playoffs aren't the time of year to begin learning how to work as a unit. If a defense hasn't learned it by the time the playoffs begin, they won't be learning it this season. No pass rush, poor secondary play, giving up too many long plays and plays across the middle will send them home early from the playoffs. They haven't played well enough to deserve to be there and they won't be there very long. Again, it's reality.

As for the offense, the first half of the season, Drew Bledsoe's immobility was a factor. Most folks blamed him on the four losses in the first half of the season. This second half has shown us that even Romo's excellent mobility and decision making isn't enough to overcome a porous offensive line. It's hard for a quarterback, regardless of how mobile he is, to dodge 4 defenders simultaneously. Danny White had the same problem. The poor play of his front line kept him from being the SuperBowl winner he surely could have been. A quarterback cannot win games flat of his back. Period. Another reality.

Terrell Owens proves one more time that he's going to make sure everyone knows it's all about him. Wasn't it convenient that there was a camera crew there to film him visiting all of his former Eagles buddies. He did his talking before the game. The Eagles did their talking on the field. TO was hardly a factor in the game. One touchdown, when the opposing team is having their way with you, is hardly a contribution. But TO got his name mentioned on TV and that's what's important. If Parcells decides to stay, and if Jones and Parcells decide to keep TO in Dallas, I think they have both left their senses. It's a team sport and you simply cannot have one guy that spends every waking moment of his life trying to make sure that everyone knows the sun, moon, planets and stars orbit around him, regardless of method or consequence. Terrell's play is not good enough to make up for his lack of team spirit. There are other receivers out there that don't come with the financial cost or the distraction cost. They need to find one and let TO go play elsewhere.

The only person who can possibly find something to be happy about on the Cowboys is possibly Gramatica. At least they can't blame this one on him. I'm sure that's great comfort for him. NOT!

I cannot see any team going into the playoffs without momentum, with a defense playing as poorly as they have basically all season, with an offensive line being as porous as they are, and with all the distractions this team has and almost certainly will have to tolerate so long as TO is on the roster, going very far in the playoffs. To even consider they are legitimate SuperBowl contenders this season isn't founded in reality. If, by some freak circumstance, they make it to the SuperBowl, the AFC has so much better teams, they'll eat them alive. The playoffs are big games. Important games. And the 2006 Cowboys haven't shown they are consistent in those games. And you don't get but one inconsistent game in the playoffs. Then you go home.

No, it won't happen this year, folks. There'll be no 6th trophy on the shelf at Valley Ranch after this season.

I screwed up and bit the cheese, drank the kool-aid and looked around for more. My deepest apologies to those that expected better of me. It won't happen again. As Parcells said, "you are what you are". The Cowboys are at the moment 9-6. That's a 60% team. And lucky to be there with the problems that they have to get corrected.

Now, how do i get the taste of bad cheese out of my mouth. . . . . .

Posted on http://www.dallascowboystalk.com/forums/showthread.php?p=7573#post7573

Business as usual. . . .

I've said several times this year that the Cowboys haven't played well in December. I was basing that on memory, but I pulled the stats just to make sure I was right. The stats didn't have actual dates of the games, so I pulled the final 5 games for each season and looked at the W-L ratios. Here's the facts:

2006 2-2 (one game left)
2005 2-3
2004 2-3
2003 2-3 Playoff game (1)
2002 1-4
2001 2-3
2000 1-4
1999 2-3 Playoff game (1)
1998 2-3 Playoff game (1)
1997 0-5
1996 2-3 Playoff games (2)
1995 3-2 SuperBowl win

So you have to go back eleven years before you find a winning record in the final 5 games of a season. It's been since 1996 that the Cowboys have won a playoff game. If the Cowboys can manage to pull out a win against the Detroit Lions this next weekend, they will have stopped that losing December streak they have going. Then they have a 3 game run to get to the SuperBowl. More than likely, on the road. The Cowboys have had only one 3 game winning streak this season and it was the first since 2003. If the Cowboys can beat the Lions, that begins that streak. As we know, one loss and you're out in the playoffs, so the Cowboys will have to beat the lions, then win 3 more in a row just to get to the SuperBowl.

To achieve a SuperBowl win, the Cowboys would have to win 4 playoff games, probably on the road. Potential opponents include the Bears, Seahawks, Giants, Eagles, or Saints. Three of these teams have already beaten the Cowboys this season. The Cowboys didn't play the other two. If you throw in winning the game against the Lions to go into the playoffs off a win, that makes it a 5 game winning streak necessary.

With a defense giving up 113 points in their last four games, an offense who just had their lowest scoring game of the season, and an offensive line that is letting defenses camp out in the Dallas backfield, the likelihood of a five game winning streak is slim to none. I'm sorry, TO, they don't start games early enough to get you in it to make up for the problems the Cowboys have on their team. I thought for a short time there that we had a good team that had some bad luck with the Saints and was going to head into the playoffs with a good head of steam. After yesterday's Christmas flogging, I've decided they've been a lucky team, being fortunate to make enough plays in a couple games to win them, giving the illusion they were a good team. I'm a Cowboys fan. Don't get me wrong, I'm not dissing the luck. I'm just sorry it's running out as we head into the playoffs.

I don't think a team that goes into the playoffs with a losing record in their last 5 games of the season is going far at all. One and done, as they say, wouldn't surprise me. I wouldn't be lining up airplane tickets for a Cowboys SuperBowl this year, folks. The likelihood against it is just too high.

No, this is more "business as usual" for the Cowboys. For the past 10 years, the Cowboys have had losing records in their last 5 games each season. This year looks no different. There's a problem when a team goes that long without having a winning record. It can't be all Parcells. He's only been here 4 of those 10 years. The Cowboys have a letdown in December each year. They've had another one this season. It's a December to remember. It's just not a very good memory.

Saturday, December 16, 2006

Needs and Hopes and Wants and Shoulds and Ifs. . . .

"We should win out even though"

"Cowboys need to answer the bell"

"If they don't understand it now, they're never going to."

"We need to play better against Atlanta"

"I hope Parrish can get prepared enough to start"

"if we had a quality speedy FS then we could let roy actually play his position"

"I just want them to win"

These are just a sampling of what's been posted in the past week. Monday morning brought a different light on the Dallas Cowboys after suffering humiliation at home against the Saints. Now, we're not so sure about the defense. Or the offensive line. Or Tony Romo. Or the coaching staff. One game and the questions are back. With a vengeance. Because one loss at this point can be devastating. Playoff positioning is at stake. Hell, the playoffs themselves are at stake.

Rope is being purchased for public hangings. The contract for building the gallows is still up for grabs, but let one more loss happen and expect a contractor to be hired immediately.

As a fan myself, I understand how people focus their anger towards one aspect of the game, or one player. When you have a game like the Saints game where the Cowboys were just outplayed at virtually every aspect of the game, it takes a few days for it to all sink in. We all seem to admit that there were many problems, but many focus the blame on one part of the game. Fans of Julius Jones and/or Marion Barber point out that the Cowboys shouldn't have abandoned he running game. Fans of the coaches point out that any coach can call a play, but if the players don't execute, it is all for naught. Fans of Tony Romo point out the lack of protection as the cause of his poor play. Fans of the defense point out that the offense was unable to maintain drives and the defense was forced to stay on the field too long and thus became tired.

And guess what. They're all right. I have said all week that this was a total team meltdown. No one is exempt from blame or criticism. Everyone could have done better than what they did. Period.

And we all know what "needs" or "should" or we "want" or "hope" to happen. And we all know the answers. They all begin with "if".

If the defense picks it up a notch. If the safeties can get the job done. If the offensive line provides protection. If Tony Romo can come back from such a loss. If, if, if. Seven days ago, most of us weren't doing much if'ing. Now, that's all we're doing and frankly it just sucks. While I never bit into the Tony Romo/Pro Bowl/Hall of Fame cheese, there's no doubt his play had been superb and riding the high was very infectuous. Dallas Cowboys football was a whole lot more fun before Sunday night's game. Now, to quote Bill Parcells, it's "critical". Critical isn't fun, in case you're wondering.

Now, it's Saturday morning and tonight is the game against the Falcons. While I did have some concerns about the Saints game last week at this time, there's no way I expected the absolute asskicking that transpired. Until last week, I wasn't overly concerned with the Falcons game. Sure, it's a road game and all that, but the Cowboys were on a roll. That roll got buttered last week by the Saints. Now, I'm right in there with most of you. I have no clue what's going to happen. This team has come back from some losses. Tony Romo has come back from losses and performed well. But this team hasn't come back from anything remotely resembling the Saints game. Can they? Of course. Will they? I have no idea and neither does anyone else.

I do have to say this, though. The Cowboys seem to be living a charmed existence this season. When they need other teams to lose, games the Cowboys aren't playing in, it seems to happen. The Bears drop a game. Seattle drops a game. Will this continue? I have no idea about that one either. Someone's going to be the winner in the Giants/Eagles game. And someone's going to be the loser. The Giants losing would be better for the Cowboys than Philly losing. I think. On the other hand, Philly is getting on a roll with Garcia and no one's buttered that roll yet. And we don't need to be facing a hot Philly team next week. Regardless, the Cowboys need to tend to their own business by winning this game. Next week will have enough of its own "if"s.

We "should" win out the rest of the games. We "need to" and "I hope" we do. I "want" the Dallas Cowboys to play like men on a mission. "If" we do, maybe some of this uncertainty will go away.

In the meantime, it sucks.

Wednesday, December 13, 2006

I'm Not Really Into It. . . .

"On the field, sometimes, I'm not really into it," T.O. said. "It's almost like I'm kind of faking it. I'm not happy, and it really was, it was affecting my game."

And of course, most of us saw the video from the interview Michael Irvin had with Terrell Owens which explained the source of his unhappiness. He doesn't trust his teammates. Someone's saying bad things behind his back and that has manifested itself in bad play on TO's part.

Pardon me, but wouldn't you think that a player deemed good enough to earn gozillions of dollars would be capable of coping with that without letting it cause him to drop balls?

What is he really saying? And is it anything new? Well, to me, it looks like he's saying that he's not responsible for any dropped passes. If that nasty person wasn't running his mouth behind TO's back, he wouldn't have missed one ball. It's all Mr. Unknown's fault.

To really make it juicy, no one elaborated on what Mr. Unknown was saying behind TO's back. Mr. U might have been talking about him sleeping in meetings. Mr. U might have been talking about how stupid his touchdown celebrations were when they were costing the Cowboys field position by drawing penalties. Mr. U might have said something bad about TO's mother. Mr. U might have said that TO wasn't the Number One Receiver. Mr. U might have mentioned TO throwing hissy fits during games early in the season, games they were losing partially because Owens had dropped balls. Mr. U might have just called him a bad name, like PooPoo Boy or Mister Balldropper.

Whatever it was, it was awful. It had to have been to cause such a psychological reaction from TO. It was damaging enough for Owens to come on national television and proclaim to the world that it was "affecting my game".

Go back and read that quote again. Nevermind, here it is a second time:

"On the field, sometimes, I'm not really into it," T.O. said. "It's almost like I'm kind of faking it. I'm not happy, and it really was, it was affecting my game."

Sometimes he's not really into it? He's cashing the checks, isn't he? If that's not enough to keep his attention, why is he here? It's "almost" like he's "kind of faking it"? What in hell does that mean? Faking what? Faking playing? Well, I guess enough dropped passes would lead an observer to come to that conclusion.

And the best part of that whole thing. "I'm not happy?" I thought he had umpteen million reasons to be happy!!! Who cares if he's happy in the first place? Like I said, he's cashing the checks, isn't he? If he's so unhappy it's affecting his game, he needs to leave. This is the biggest crock foisted upon an NFL team since Ricky Williams did his dog and pony show in New Orleans and later Miami.

Terrell Owens, you are being paid to produce positive results for a football team. If your unhappiness is causing you to not produce positive results or produce negative results, then you need to get therapy, take up crossdressing or needlepoint, change your diet, buy another diamond earring, go visit Michael Jackson and see if he'll let you play in Neverland, go to Six Flags, learn organic gardening, visit Ravi Shankar, go to the boats in Shreveport, La., or whatever else it takes to get over it. Hell, start a career in professional wrestling, they love the drama crap over there. This is the National Football League. You're a multi-million dollar player and you're sounding like some whiney assed crybaby squawling because the other kids are pointing at your feet and laughing at you.

TO, you're NOT the Number One Receiver for the Dallas Cowboys. And your mother dresses you funny. Get frigging over it. You have a job to do.

Side note: http://sports.espn.go.com/nfl/statistics

ESPN QB Rankings 12/12/2006

1. Drew Brees, NO 101.2
2. Carson Palmer, CIN 98.7
3. Damon Huard, KC 97.6
4. Tony Romo, DAL 96.6
5. Philip Rivers, SD 96.3

"We are at a critical time of the season."

That's what Bill Parcells said on Monday after the Saints opened up a can of whipass on the Dallas Cowboys Sunday night. He's right. If this team is a contender, they will make a statement in Atlanta Saturday night. If Tony Romo is the "real deal", so will he.

I can talk all day long about what the team "needs to do", but everyone knows. The bottom line is the entire team, coaching staff included, needs to climb back on that pony and ride it like there's no tomorrow. For all intents and purposes, there isn't one. If they lose the Atlanta game, it'll be more of a psychological breakdown, Philadelphia will get pumped up even more, as will the Giants and the NFC East title will be in serious jeopardy.

This will be the fifth critical game in a row for the Cowboys. The one that I declared to be the defining game for this season was the one against the Indianapolis Colts. The Cowboys won that one and the first serious talk about playoff contention began. Then the Thanksgiving Day game against Tampa Bay. Tampa isn't a contender, but if the Cowboys dropped that game in front of a national audience, the questioning would begin whether they were serious contenders or not. They won that one. Then the Giants game. On the road, NFC East opponent, NFC East title on the line, playoff positioning on the line, and the Cowboys won it. Barely. But barely counts. Then the Saints, again for playoff positioning. And the Cowboys screwed the pooch on that one.

Now, all the Romomania has stopped. The road to the promise land doesn't look like it's paved in gold quite yet. No one is expounding on how Romo's previous games have proven that he will come back from a 42-17 knockout punch. And the reason they're not expounding on that is very simple. They have no clue how he'll react to that game. There is absolutely no data to draw from that would give anyone an indication one way or the other. This week, what we hear is "I hope" and "they need to" and "he needs to". Well duhhhh. Of course we hope, and the Cowboys need to, and Romo needs to.

Bill Parcells says it's a "critical time". I agree, and so do most Cowboys fans. Extremely critical. I firmly believe that a loss to the Falcons will cause several catastrophic events to occur. I think a loss will bring about a psychological letdown that they won't recover from this season. They might limp into the playoffs, but they won't stay long. I already believe this will be Parcells' last season in Dallas. But a loss here will just cinch it, I believe. Then we're talking new coach, new philosophy, etc. And that leads to a year or two of getting things lined up for the new way of thinking before the Cowboys would get back into contention. Yeah, I'd consider this one "critical".

For Romo, this one's critical. If he comes in, with renewed confidence, has another stellar game like we know he's capable of having, that will filter to the rest of the team. If he comes in looking like the second coming of Quincy Carter, running like a scared jackrabbit, throwing the ball just because he can, not necessarily at anyone in particular, folks, we're in trouble. We desperately need Tony Romo to be "the man", "the real deal", etc. Did I say "desperately"?? I meant it. We need to be able to use that annointing oil Parcells mentioned. The pressure is on Tony Romo with a vengeance. The moon eyed, blindly staring minions are no longer lined up to get on the train to the promise land at Romo's mere beckoning. Someone stuck up a sign that reads "Bridge Out" and Cowboys Nation is wandering around in mindless stupor like Katrina victims were doing last year after the hurricane struck.

What a time for Fathead to come out with their Romo rendering. I bet sales haven't met expectations this week. See, this need for Romo to be "the man" actually affects lives. We all know it's just a game, but there are real life consequences to the ups and downs of particular players and teams. There is pressure on Tony Romo. From his team, his fans, his coaches, and probably more than from anyone else, from his own self.

There are still a few more things I want to see before I decide to climb on the Romo bandwagon. Obviously, one is to know whether there's even a bandwagon to climb on. Another is to see how he handles getting hammered several times in one game. He stuttered for a moment after that solid hit in the Giants game. We don't know how he'll do if he gets several of those in one game. No discussion needed. We simply don't know. And we don't know how Tony Romo deals with an absolute buttkicking. We'll know the answer to that question Saturday night.

One of two things happen this weekend, in my opinion. The Cowboys win, definitively, proving the Saints game was a fluke and gain their confidence back, proving they're a legitimate playoff contender with potential of going further than one game. Or the Cowboys lose, and you can stick a fork in them, they'll be done. You'll get no prediction from me today, either way. Not at a critical time like this.

Monday, December 11, 2006

Parcells - Get Up or Get Out?

I have been a Cowboys fan since 1972. Diehard Cowboys fan. That was a great time to become one, too, with Staubach and Doomsday and Drew and Preston and Tony Dorsett and all the guys on those great teams.

I learned to loathe the Washington Redskins, Philadelphia Eagles, St. Louis Cardinals and of course, the New York Giants. I didn't like their fans or their players. To this day, I don't like to watch Jaworski or Theissman as analysts. It's just old habits.

I didn't like their coaches. And of course, one of those coaches was Bill Parcells. Even when Parcells went to the Jets, those emotions remained. I couldn't bring myself to root for Joe Gibbs in his racing endeavors. When the Cowboys signed Randall Cunningham as backup to Troy Aikman, I never did like it. I rooted for the guy when he played for the Cowboys, but never liked him.

Players and coaches changed teams. I knew that. Still know it. And now with free agency, there's even more change. It's not uncommon at all to find guys that have played on 4 to 5 different teams.

But this article is about a coach, not about players. Specifically, Coach Bill Parcells. When Jerry Jones fired Dave Campo and handed the reins to Parcells, I was not happy. My mind's eye simply couldn't see Parcells pacing the Dallas sideline. He was the enemy. Sure he had the credentials. And we needed the credentials, badly. But he once coached the Giants. Ewwwwwww

But being the fan I am, I bolstered the courage to get behind him and give him my support, if not my total trust. First, we had the Quincy Carter year. And a One and Done playoff experience. Then the QB controversies and then Parcells was getting his old players in, reminding me in some twisted way like the next Rocky movie. Even this season, we've seen quarterback changes.

But what I want to talk about is play calling and coaching. The Cowboys have been a mediocre team for many years. Eleven years ago, in another millenium and with another coach, the Cowboys won a SuperBowl. Since 1995, they have struggled. Parcells arrival led expectations to soar that we were two or 3 years away from a SuperBowl appearance. Of course, that hasn't happened yet. After a couple years as head coach in Dallas, I started liking Parcells. I don't know how or why it happened, it just did.

Last night, Sean Payton, now head coach of the Saints, formerly assistant coach under Parcells for the Cowboys, just embarassed the Cowboys. When Payton was here, many accused him of being too conservative offensively. Last night should have shut that argument up once and for all. Over 500 yards and 42 points is not conservative. Hammering the nail in the coffin with an onside kick when you're 20 points ahead is not conservative.

Where was that kind of play calling last year? Obviously Payton didn't suddenly become annointed by the football genies into greatness.

On the other side of the ball in Dallas, Mike Zimmer has been coaching the defense. His playcalling during Parcells' first year was incredible. With a bunch of not so outstanding players, he created an NFL #1 defense. Since then, the playcalling has become very conservative. Rushing the passer appears to be an afterthought. "Bend, don't break" is the buzzword. The problem is, they do break.

For some reason, there are players like Roy Williams who are not playing to their strengths. They're in the wrong place to truly use their talents. Williams is in pass coverage, when everyone admits he's better as a run blocker. The Cowboys are in their second year of 3-4 defense, a style Zimmer hadn't coached previously, so some of it could be simply ignorance of the nuances of the 3-4. We saw glimpses of how good that defense could be if given the leeway to be aggressive, not conservative, in the Indianapolis Colts game. The Colts were the hot offense and the Cowboys stayed in Manning's face the whole game. Why they didn't do that last night with the Saints, also a hot offense, we'll never know.

But I have an opinion. I think Parcells is keeping a bridle on both the offensive coaches and the defensive coaches. Too tight of a bridle. After seeing the offensive performance the Saints had last night, you can't call Payton conservative. After seeing that Colts game this year, you can't call Zimmer conservative or ignorant. I don't for a minute think Zimmer suddenly popped up with one great defensive game, enough to beat an unbeaten playoff bound team, all at once. That wasn't a fluke. That game was planned to be that way. And I don't think Zimmer would have one great game like that and not do similar things in other games, in hopes of having another great game.

No, something else is happening. I think Parcells' idea of managing a game, working the time clock to your advantage, playing conservative ball control football is a great idea. Until you're getting beaten 42-17. Then you simply have to say that what you're doing is just not working.

Parcells on several occasions this year has looked like he was ready to scream. His team in some games have looked like a bunch of undisciplined hooligans. Last night's game is the best example of that so far this year. I have a couple theories why I think all this is happening.

Theory #1: Parcells is just hung up on the past too much. Hiring several of his former players is the clue. Testaverde and Bledsoe. Everyone knows both of those guys were past their prime when he hired them. Neither of them were going to improve from game to game. And neither were the longterm solution at QB. Parcells was just confortable with them. And he planned games based on their declining abilities. Meaning more conservatively. Has the game passed him by? I'm beginning to think it has. We haven't seen the Cowboys go into the locker room at halftime and come out a different team in the 2nd half. Last night, the 2nd half was simply a continuation of the first half. What didn't work in the first half, still didn't work in the second. What did work wasn't tried very often. There's just something fundamentally wrong with that strategy.

Theory #2: Parcells has lost control of his team. I think this began with the hiring of Terrell Owens. The Bill Parcells of old would not have completely ignored that alleged drug overdose by Terrell Owens without having some kind of comment directly to Owens. The Bill Parcells of old wouldn't have let that "naptime" celebration of Owens after a touchdown go with no punishment. The celebration cost the Cowboys 15 yards on the ensuing kickoff, if you remember. The Bill Parcells of old wouldn't have put up with Owens saying he disagreed with Vanderjagt's firing, a snide comment about being asleep in team meetings and missing what Parcells said about playoff contenders, and an interview in which he said he "felt like he was faking it" during games. No, the Bill Parcells of old would have a comment in each of those instances.

I think Jerry Jones forced Owens on Parcells. And Parcells is having to suck it up and play all the shenanigans that come with Owens. And other team members are seeing all this. For a long time this season, the Cowboys were the most penalized team in the league. An undisciplined team isn't going far. And once again, the Cowboys were very undisciplined last night.

I believe this will be Parcell's last season. I'm not predicting that, simply telling you that I fully expect it. I've proven I'm no prophet, so take it at face value. But I believe he's had enough. Win, Lose, or Draw, I believe he'll retire this season. Games like last night take too much of a toll on him these days. He's comfortable and I think he has lost that competitive edge. So it is time for him to retire. For his sake and for the Dallas Cowboys' sake. He'll go back to New Jersey and do what old coaches do. Become a talking head or just play golf and bet on the ponies. I wish him well.

Now, what that does to the future of the Cowboys is anyone's guess. In the meantime, let's hope the players get their heads out of their asses and get the job done going into the playoffs. Trying to mold this team into a mirror of the Giants during Parcells' tenure hasn't worked. Different personnel, free agency, different schemes have all pushed the game beyond Parcells' reach, I think. It's up to the players now to get the motivation required to get them far in the playoffs. I don't think Parcells will do much more than ride the bus.

Lessons from LaLa Land

It's Monday morning, after the Cowboys/Saints game where the New Orleans Saints came into Texas Stadium and absolutely humiliated the Dallas Cowboys. 42-17 was the score, in case you might have been held incommunicado somewhere in Bangladesh and didn't hear.

Crown Prince Romo was discovered to have soiled his pants during that drubbing. Two interceptions and not enough production to play Pop Warner football, much less in the National Football League. Drew Brees showed why experience matters. Tony Romo showed why inexperience matters.

The offensive line for the Dallas Cowboys should simply be marked absent for the game. So should the Dallas secondary on defense. Automatica became Cosmetica, shanking one to the right as good as Vanderjagt ever did. How much more humiliating could it be for the Cowboy to watch Brees begin kneeling down to let the clock run out with three minutes left in the game? Coach Sean Peyton took mercy on his former mentor, but that mercy had its own form of humiliation.

Terrell Owens had a break out game. Everything thrown to him broke. Out, In, Up Down. It didn't matter. It just broke. One touchdown pass and a bunch of opportunities is all he had. Perhaps he was still too sensitive and just couldn't get into it. Perhaps we should be more understanding and not hurt his little multi-million dollar feelings.

And the fans. How many jumped off that Romo bandwagon last night? Fickle is such an ugly color on a Cowboys fan. I actually saw some folks online last night wanting to see Bledsoe in the game. The pretense was to protect Romo from injury. I suspect that many just couldn't bare to see the reality that Romo is after all, human. I did see a couple messages online from folks who have been diehard Romo fans. You know the type. The ones that get almost violently angry when one even mentions the remote possibility that Romo isn't quite ready for induction into the Hall of Fame. Those messages eluded to all the problems the Cowboys had last night. . . offensive line play, receivers screwing up, defense just not there, special teams screwing up, Gramatica, etc. But no mention of the two interceptions. Apparently, that's now allowed in LaLa Land.

I predicted a win by the Cowboys last night. As I stated last night, I am now officially out of the prophecy business. I'll talk statistics, tendencies, whatever. But you're not going to get a prediction out of me. But you will get opinions. Lord knows I have a lot of them this morning.

Speaking of statistics, here's a little fact I dug up this morning. These are stats on the final 5 games played in the past 10 years.

2006 1-1 (three games left to play)
2005 2-3
2004 2-3
2003 2-3
2002 1-4
2001 2-3
2000 1-4
1999 2-3
1998 2-3
1997 0-5
1996 3-2

Stats from http://www.pro-football-reference.c...ms/dalindex.htm

You might have heard me mention that the Cowboys haven't had what you'd call a banner December in years. Well, the facts are they haven't had a winning record in their final 5 regular season games for 10 years. And after last night's fiasco, this December might match that. It isn't a long reach to see this team implode like many, including me, were claiming the Giants were going to do. Getting absolutely humiliated like they did last night could have a serious psychological effect on the Cowboys. It could also work as a rallying cry to boost their play. Based on statistics, the reasonable assumption is to look for bad news.

Of course, in LaLa Land, today's buzzword is "everyone has a bad day, it'll be all right". Unlike before yesterday's game, when the buzzword was "he can do no wrong, he will lead us to the promise land". I guess they forgot the promise land is full of Saints.

Before any of you start typing responses telling me how happy I am because I was right about not seeing how Romo handled adversity and dealing with massive pressure, let me tell you emphatically how I feel about this situation. I would revel in having been wrong. I am almost sick at my stomach over watching Romo look like he was a high schooler who made a wrong turn and wound up in Texas Stadium with the big boys. I would much rather see him throwing 5 touchdown passes, while the Dallas defense had a field day with the Saints offense. It didn't happen. Romo sucked, along with the rest of the team, coaches included. I wouldn't be surprised if the towel boys didn't screw up something, too. This was an absolute total meltdown of the entire team. No one escapes blame for this one.

Now, the question remains, will they snap back and get the much more difficult job done. Who knows. You can bet your hiney that every team facing the Cowboys will be dissecting the film from last night to see what it takes to disrupt the Dallas Cowboys. If they follow history, they'll finish 9-7, maybe 10-6 and a wildcard berth. One and Done is another buzzword I'm hearing this morning. One playoff game, losing it, and watching the rest of the playoffs from home is what that one means, if you don't know. Sounds very Quincy Carterish doesn't it?

Last night was bad. Really, really bad. This morning, not only does the emperor have no clothes, but the whole empire has no clothes. The Cajun Cowboys turned this place into a nudist camp. And there's no Jessica Simpson around to make it even somewhat palatable.

Anyone else want to argue with me that we have seen enough of Tony Romo to vote him into the Hall of Fame? I say we haven't. But then, I don't get my mail at the LaLa Land Post Office.

Thursday, December 7, 2006

Deal or No Deal

Tony Romo is heading into his 7th game as the starting quarterback. Has he been perfect so far? One can argue that he isn't the one that lost the Washington game, that that loss falls completely on the botched field goal attempt or the ensuing penalty which gave Washington just enough field goal range for them to successfully make the play. On the other hand, one could argue that if it weren't a 3 point game at that point in the first place, all that would be irrelevent, and therefore Romo, as de facto leader of the offense, holds the blame. But regardless, Tony Romo has not been perfect. Stellar, most definitely, but not perfect. Perfection is simply not possible in this realm of existence.

But we have seen amazing things at that position since he took the reins. His mobility has changed the entire offense. His ability to adjust to the speed of NFL play almost immediately is nothing short of phenomenal. For a quarterback who, although had two years on the bench watching but had not seen any regular season action, Tony Romo has been the most pleasant surprise for the Dallas Cowboys in years.

But the question at hand for many of us remains "is he the real deal or not?" So, what yardstick do we use to determine the answer to that question? Should we use quarterback rating? If so, he's been top of the totem pole for several weeks. Ahead of Peyton Manning and everyone else in the NFL. Is six games enough to declare him able to sustain that level of play? Five wasn't to me. Six is getting closer. Will seven be the magical number for me? It may very well. He just had his worse game to date as a starter. And he rallied the Cowboys to a win over the Giants in the last minute. When a play from the quarterback was needed, he made the play. He hasn't panicked, nor has he lost his confidence.

Perhaps we simply look at number of wins as the barometer to decide if Tony Romo is the real deal or not. If that's the case, then again, he's at the top of the totem pole. He's coming off of his fourth consecutive win, and 5 wins out of the 6 games he's started. He is the one with the "hot hand" in the league. Seasoned veterans are watching this guy and just shaking their heads in amazement that he is playing at the level he has so far. Coaches who are looking at a game against the Cowboys are definitely factoring Tony Romo into their defense. So far, not one has shut him down.

We could also look at leadership ability as the measuring stick for judging Tony Romo. He trots onto the field in the second half of the first Giants game and immediately throws an interception. But he came back on the field when the Cowboys got the ball and proceeded to produce. The Cowboys lost that game, but he had started carving his notch on the team. The next game, he was the starter. And they won. Then the freak Washington game, another loss. And since then, he's been "the man". The offense stepped it up a notch and both the running game and the passing game has improved. Points per game have increased. No longer are only a couple receivers getting the ball. Now, the guy that's open gets it. And defenses haven't been able to stop it. Tony Romo has shown he has great field vision. He sees the open receivers and gets the ball there. And because of all this, his team believes he'll get the job done. He has earned their respect and their trust. He walked on that field and just took command. Rightfully so, he is now the leader of the Cowboys.

If winning big games is an important criteria, Tony Romo fills the bill there, also. He led the Cowboys to a win against the unbeaten Baltimore Colts. He has now finished 6 games, winning 5 of them. The last one put the Cowboys in the lead in the NFC East. With 3 of the final 4 games in the season being played in Texas Stadium, everyone expects the Cowboys to be in the playoffs, and quite possibly with a bye week.

How about winning "big games"? I've already mentioned the game against the unbeaten Colts. Romo led the team to a victory there. And then the Thanksgiving Day game, before a national audience, Romo led the team to a victory over Tampa Bay. And also previously mentioned, the Giants game for lead in the NFC East. He put the team in position to win at the very end of the game. And they did win. Yes, he can play in the big ones.

So, what's the negative side of things? As I said earlier, no one is perfect. The biggest obstacle to declaring Tony Romo as the "real deal" is simply the number of games he's started. We're talking 6 games here, folks. Pop Warner seasons last longer than that. This isn't a career yet. Sure, he's been in the NFL too long to call him a rookie. But sitting on the bench is not a career. Neither is 6 games. If he were injured tomorrow, beyond return, would we talk about his great career? No, we'd talk about his potential to have a great career and have to settle for the "what if" routine.

Tony Romo, so far, has shown just about everything one needs to show to be declared the "real deal". Except longevity and the ability to sustain play at his current level. And there's no way to magically make those two items appear tomorrow. It's going to require him receiving snaps, throwing passes, making decisions, etc. Bill Parcells can't give it to him, his teammates can't give it to him, you can't give it to him and neither can I. Not today, anyway. It's simply going to take time.

So, in answer to the question "Deal or No Deal?" I have to say "No Deal". Not because he won't be the real deal, but because he hasn't had time to become the real deal yet. I fully expect him to do just that. But, isn't it fun watching him mature into what this team has needed for years?

Cowboys win against the Saints. Dallas' defense tightens the vise. Tony has a better game than he did in New York. It won't be in Gramatica's hands this time.

Rod