Friday, June 29, 2007

To be or not to be. . . .

This season hinges on two players. The level of their success will make or break this team. I'm talking about Tony Romo and Julius Jones.

Fortunately, both players are in the last year of their contract. This, in itself raises the level of most players. If the player performs well, he's worth more next year. If he doesn't, he's worth less. Amazing how that all works out, isn't it?

So Tony Romo goes into this season as the starting quarterback. He has wanted his chance and this is it. If the offensive line is as improved as we're all hoping, Romo should have a good season. He'll look like the 1st 5 game Tony Romo we saw last season. . . mobile, quick decision making, accurate and unrattled. If that offensive line doesn't keep the dogs off, we'll see the last 5 game Tony Romo . . . . reticent, hurried, unsure of himself. He was crowned the 2nd coming of Brett Favre in his first few games. In his last few, he looked more like Quincy Carter running for his life. Even if the offensive line gets their job done, it's still up to Romo.

Romo became the starter last season and promptly proceeded to light it up. Within 5 weeks, he had enough people convinced he could do no wrong that he was voted into the Pro Bowl. Romo fever was rampant, with only a few of us saying it was much too early to declare him a hall of famer. Then the Cowboys imploded. From being the number 2 seed going into December, they dropped to the point they barely made it into the playoffs. Tony Romo's only playoff start ended as a disaster as the Cowboys dropped their wildcard game on a fluke play.

Julius Jones has to sustain a level he hasn't shown he can maintain in the past. He has had his moments of glory, but unfortunately, they've been few and far between. Getting through last season by Parcells keeping him on the bench a lot in the final games doesn't leave me with high expectations of him getting through the coming season. One year of playing all 16 games does not prove a running back is durable. But Jones said Parcells had him hampered and feeling like a robot. He won't have Parcells to point fingers at this season, so if he has a bad season, it's going to be all on Julius Jones. If he has a good season, he can say I told you so.

There has been talk of trading Jones. There has been talk of the Cowboys letting his contract run out and using one of their 1st round picks in the next draft to pick up a highly rated running back. I think there's enough history on Julius Jones now to be very nervous going into this season. Durability is still a question. Production is still a question. Even if he has an excellent season, how much money do you want to throw at a guy that waits until a contract year before showing he's a serious contender? Personally, I think the handwriting is on the wall and the Cowboys will be making a change at running back next spring, if not sooner. Others feel Jones can be one of the elite runners in the league. There would have to be a fundamental change in production for him to be what I considered "elite".

So, here we are. Going into the season with two guys that frankly make me nervous. We still don't know if Romo is the quarterback of the future for the Cowboys or if he's going to just become the latest failed experiment at the position. We don't know if Jones is right and all of his past woes have been because of Parcells or if Jones himself might have been a contributing factor. We don't know if Jones will make it through the season unless he's allowed to warm the bench at the end of the season. Emmitt Smith played at Giant's stadium, in freezing weather with a dislocated shoulder. Bill Parcells felt Jones had to be kept out of the games to keep him from getting injured toward the end of last season. You couldn't keep Smith out of the game. With Jones, you couldn't keep him in. We're accustomed to more at running back for the Cowboys.

If Romo and Jones can perform at a high level, the offense should be in the top 5. If either of them perform poorly, the entire season becomes in jeopardy.

Of course, we do have training camp and preseason. Although I'm not expecting the next Joe Montana to show up to try out for quarterback, I wouldn't be surprised to see a young running back with just enough talent to raise some eyebrows show up and compete for a starting position. No, I don't think the next Walter Peyton is on the squad. Yes, I do think Jones should be watching his back.

Let's hope Jones and Romo stay healthy and improve their game skills and that the rest of the offense does their job. It has been so long since we've had a truly elite offense. I know the old axium that defenses win championships. I've always felt that teams with the most points win championships. Go figure.

Rod

http://macsheadroom.blogspot.com/

Tuesday, June 12, 2007

Time to show my unmentionables. . . .

One and a half months until training camp. Players and coaches are getting in whatever R&R time they can manage because Two-A-Days are on the way. Maybe Three-A-Days. In Texas, in July and August. The Cowboys have made some major changes during the offseason. This is not your Tuna's Cowboys anymore. He has been lounging on Jimmy Johnson's boat, away from the microphones, away from TO, away from Jerry Jones. Meanwhile Coach Phillips is beginning his attempt to do what everyone wants him to do. Win sixteen games, go to the playoffs and win straight through to the SuperBowl where he leads the Cowboys to their seventh Lombardi trophy.

Unmentionable #1. Getting to the SuperBowl in their first year as head coach for a team is almost impossible. Winning sixteen regular season games in a row in the same season hasn't happened yet, so color it almost impossible, too. Taking a team to the playoffs and winning even your first playoff game, when that team has totally choked during the month of December for 11 straight years is probably somewhere on that improbable list, too. To expect Coach Phillips to get this team to the SuperBowl his first year in Dallas is unreasonable. Unless he figures out this December Meltdown problem, he'll be lucky to get to a wildcard game.

Unmentionable #2. Terrell Owens is quiet. Almost too quiet. I know we've all be harping on him to shut his mouth, me amongst the hardiest doing so. But at least when TO's mouth is moving, you know what's on his mind. I'm going to be optimistic and hope he's just maturing some and his famous Second Year With The Team troubles aren't about to start.

Unmentionable #3. Tony Romo should have gotten a confidence boost when Jerry Jones passed on the #8 guy in the draft by many team's standards and basically said to the world that he thinks Tony Romo has what it takes to lead the Cowboys. But with eleven games behind him, and five of them bring losses where the Cowboys were outscored 162-96, almost a two to one average. He played well in the one playoff game, at quarterback, at least. We won't mention the end of the game since that won't be a factor this year. The thing that will be a factor is have other teams seen enough film of Romo to have his number? December's games seem to indicate they have. The front line should be better this year. He should have more time. We'll see. What if he does poorly in his first few games and the negotiations for his new contract break down? What if he settles for a much lower figure than he thinks he's worth after reading six months of hype? What if resentment from that causes his production to drop?

Unmentionable #4. Jason Garrett is changing everything from a ball control type offense to the timing based offense of the early 90's. If Garrett has what it takes to teach this, and the players have what it takes to learn it, production should go up and that translates into more wins. After 11 straight years of December Meltdowns, they need all the wins they can get before and up until Thanksgiving. Everyone is talking about the more wide open offense. The ball going deeper, but not neglecting the running game. It sounds great on paper.

Unmentionable #5. Julius Jones is in the last year of his contract. If he's wanting to remain with the Cowboys, he's going to have to turn that burner wayyyyyyy up. Everyone's excited about having bigger guys on the offensive line. Hell, Julius Jones couldn't get around the smaller guys he had last year. Why do we expect he's going to get around these new guys who are larger? Why do we expect he's not going to run right into their huge backs when he was running into the backs of the smaller guys on his team last year? If Jones was being held back and turned into a robot last year by Parcells, he should set the woods on fire this year with this more dynamic offense. The new offense is the one Emmett Smith flourished in, surely Jones can pick it up enough to convince us he's not a robot and deserves to stay. And the bad part about this deal is if Jones is injured, there's not a whole lot of experience back there on 2nd string and beyond. MBIII is back there, but the concensus of opinions seems to be that he's not an every down back. If Jones goes down, how's Garrett going to handle his new offense? Hopefully we won't have to find out.

Unmentionable #6. What if Roy Williams really has lost a step. Or two. What if this great pass rush we're all expecting doesn't happen? What if they play 12 games and do fairly well, and choke during December for the 12th consecutive year? What if Greg Ellis' achilles tendon injury ends his career? Sure, Spencer's here. But he's a rookie. How many rookies come in and do the job of an experienced veteran at a level it takes to get to the SuperBowl? Yes it happens. No, not often.

Unmentionable #7. What if Jerry Jones gets back in meddling mode? What if he's standing on the sidelines breathing down Coach Phillips' neck? We know Jason Garrett will be intimidated by Jones, so Jones' meanderings on the sidelines might get him more nervous than a cat on a hot tin roof. Phillips is in his layed back mode, but how long will he maintain it with "the man" wandering around closeby?

Unmentionable #8. What if all readers of this simply take it for what it is, a bunch of questions or statements of possibilities, and don't accuse me of being negative, a "half empty glass" kinda guy, or not a real fan. Of all the ones on here, this is the least likely.

Unmentionable #9. What if I get to eat these words next February when the Cowboys are polishing their new Lombardi trophy? As Bill Parcells said once, "wouldn't that be something?"

Rod